Thursday, September 1, 2011

September Storms - first one of 2011 brewing

This is the month of hurricanes along the Texas gulf coast. So what is happening on the first of September?  A storm is brewing off of the Louisiana coast. Right now we have a low pressure disturbance that is beginning to close its circulation. There is no concensus by weather models that puts the storm in any specific area at any given time, but we do have general information about the expected behavior of this storm at this time.

Generally, the system is almost stationary off of the Louisiana coast. It is growing in size and strength as I write this article. It is slowed by upper level shear winds now, but in the next few hours, those upperlevel winds are expected to diminish and allow the storm to develop without impedances. There is some agreement with forecasters that the storm will be repelled by a developing high pressure ridge over Louisiana, forcing the storm to the west/southwest by Monday. That change is expected to drive the storm toward the lower gulf coast, but pass by our area in the process with wind and rain on the northern and eastern side of the storm.

Keep an eye out for this, because it could develop into a major storm, and the Houston area could be the recipient. We certainly need the rain, but the winds on top of the dry conditions and weakened state of our trees is not welcome. Typically, tropical weather in September breaks drought conditions on the middle gulf coast. Will we get that rain without dangerous winds ? I sure hope so.